Rome’s Economic Suicide with Lawrence Reed and Marc Hyden

Colosseum

Ancient Rome went from a thriving civilization to a dystopia before its eventual collapse. My guests today explain how that happened. Lawrence Reed and Marc Hyden co-authored “The Slow-Motion Financial Suicide of the Roman Empire.” Lawrence is the President of the Foundation for Economic Education, and Marc is a political activist and amateur Roman historian.

Many accounts of the fall of Rome focus on military problems and the barbarian invasions. However, the Empire was in decline long before the barbarians showed up to finish it off. The barbarians didn’t kill the Roman Empire; the Roman Empire committed suicide. There were six important factors in the Empire’s decline:

1. Political violence became normalized.

The populist reformer Tiberius Gracchus redistributed public farmland to Roman citizens. His reforms angered the Senate, and his political enemies clubbed him to death in 133 BCE. This was the first open political assassination in Rome in nearly four centuries, but it wouldn’t be the last. Suddenly, it became acceptable for powerful Romans to kill their political enemies, and this would spell doom for Rome’s republican government.

2. The Roman state gave ever-increasing amounts of free food and entertainment to the masses.

Despite having killed Tiberius Gracchus, the senate did not repeal his reforms in an effort to assuage the masses. Tiberius’ brother Gaius Gracchus would take his brother’s position and further his reforms, also introducing a system of subsidized grain for the masses. When Gaius also succumbed to political violence, most of his reforms died with him, but not the grain dole. The dole was retained and expanded, proving a huge burden on the Roman state. Successive generations of Roman leaders would buy political popularity with panem et circenses (bread and circuses). The Roman people came to value the dole over all other values. When the emperor Caligula was assassinated, there was a brief opportunity to restore the Republic, but the people preferred the rule of strong men who could provide them with ever more panem et circenses.

3. Roman armies became personally loyal to their generals rather than being loyal to the Roman state or the people.

In the early Roman Republic, the two elected consuls would raise forces from the eligible land-holding citizenry in times of crisis. These soldiers would return to their ordinary lives upon the completion of the war. This would change with the reforms implemented by Gaius Marius in 107 BCE. Marius expanded military eligibility to the landless masses and granted farmland to his veterans. He also set a precedent for much longer military campaigns (consulships had been ordinarily limited to one year). These changes made the soldiers personally loyal to their generals rather than to the Senate and People of Rome, and the generals would use their military strength to intimidate the Senate. Eventually they supplanted the Senate altogether, turning Rome into an empire with a series of strong men leading it as emperors.

However, the soldiers’ loyalty only lasted as long as the wealth and land kept coming in increasing amounts, as future emperors would discover while wrestling with the Empire’s deteriorating finances.

4. They debased the currency.

The silver denarius was introduced by Augustus with a silver content of about 95 per cent. However, successive emperors, facing ever-increasing demands on the treasury, both from the people who demanded panem et circenses and from the military who demanded ever-more land and money for their loyalty, needed whatever revenue they could get. When taxes would not suffice, emperors would melt down old coins and mint new ones with reduced silver content. During Trajan’s rule, the denarius was about 85 per cent silver. By Marcus Aurelius’ reign, that was down to about 75 per cent. Septimius Severus dropped it to 60 per cent, and his son Caracalla reduced it further to only 50 per cent.

Eventually this would spiral out of control into hyperinflation; emperors couldn’t debase the currency fast enough to keep up with skyrocketing prices. By 268 CE, the denarius was just a bronze coin with a bit of silver brushed on its surface; the silver content was less than one per cent. Nor did they understand the connection between rising prices and currency debasements, which led to…

5. They instituted Draconian price controls.

Rather than halting the debasement of the denarius, the Romans instituted (predictably) disastrous price controls. Dicoletian issued his Edict on Maximum Prices in 301 CE. Diocletian set one price for the whole of the empire, from modern-day Iraq in the east to Britain in the west. In regions where the costs of goods was significantly higher than the legal limit, markets dried up, riots broke out, and many people were put to death for selling at too high a price. The law was so disastrous that it was eventually dropped.

6. They instituted onerous taxes.

Monetary reforms under Diocletian and Constantine switched the empire largely to a gold standard, which was an improvement over the hyperinflationary denarius. However, the benefits of this gold currency were not felt by those outside of the military and the bureaucracy; most people had to scramble to get enough gold to pay their taxes. People who couldn’t pay were sold into slavery.

When the barbarian invasions came in the fifth century, the people welcomed them as liberators, freeing them from the yoke of the Roman tax collectors.

 

[Note: A phone rings in the background of the recording at 10:20. Don’t be alarmed! Your phone isn’t ringing.]

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The post Rome’s Economic Suicide with Lawrence Reed and Marc Hyden appeared first on The Economics Detective.

Rome’s Economic Suicide with Lawrence Reed and Marc Hyden

Ancient Rome went from a thriving civilization to a dystopia before its eventual collapse. My guests today explain how that happened. Lawrence Reed and Marc Hyden co-authored “The Slow-Motion Financial Suicide of the Roman Empire.” Lawrence is the President of the Foundation for Economic Education, and Marc is a political activist and amateur Roman historian.

Many accounts of the fall of Rome focus on military problems and the barbarian invasions. However, the Empire was in decline long before the barbarians showed up to finish it off. The barbarians didn’t kill the Roman Empire; the Roman Empire committed suicide. There were six important factors in the Empire’s decline:

1. Political violence became normalized.

The populist reformer Tiberius Gracchus redistributed public farmland to Roman citizens. His reforms angered the Senate, and his political enemies clubbed him to death in 133 BCE. This was the first open political assassination in Rome in nearly four centuries, but it wouldn’t be the last. Suddenly, it became acceptable for powerful Romans to kill their political enemies, and this would spell doom for Rome’s republican government.

2. The Roman state gave ever-increasing amounts of free food and entertainment to the masses.

Despite having killed Tiberius Gracchus, the senate did not repeal his reforms in an effort to assuage the masses. Tiberius’ brother Gaius Gracchus would take his brother’s position and further his reforms, also introducing a system of subsidized grain for the masses. When Gaius also succumbed to political violence, most of his reforms died with him, but not the grain dole. The dole was retained and expanded, proving a huge burden on the Roman state. Successive generations of Roman leaders would buy political popularity with panem et circenses (bread and circuses). The Roman people came to value the dole over all other values. When the emperor Caligula was assassinated, there was a brief opportunity to restore the Republic, but the people preferred the rule of strong men who could provide them with ever more panem et circenses.

3. Roman armies became personally loyal to their generals rather than being loyal to the Roman state or the people. (more…)

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Predictions for 2016

Fortune cookie: The S&P 500 will end 2016 lower than it started

This year I will be making a series of predictions about the future, and assigning each of them a probability. I was inspired to do so by Scott Alexander and Phillip Tetlock. Too many commentators make vague predictions about future events and then declare victory however things turn out. So, in the interest of holding myself to a higher standard than a fortune cookie or horoscope, here are my predictions for 2016:

World Events

  1. Canadian year-over-year CPI growth will be higher than it was in December 2015: 90%
  2. Canadian year-over-year CPI growth will be at least 2.0%: 60%
  3. American year-over-year CPI growth will stay below 1.0%: 60%
  4. American year-over-year CPI growth will stay below 2.0%: 80%
  5. Unemployment in the US will be lower than it was in December 2015: 60%
  6. Unemployment in Canada will be lower than it was in December 2015: 60%
  7. Canadian year-over-year real GDP growth will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 70%
  8. American year-over-year real GDP growth will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 60%
  9. Iranian year-over-year real GDP growth will be higher in 2016 than it was in 2015: 80%
  10. The S&P 500 will end 2016 lower than it started: 60% (note that I am making this prediction on January 26th, and it has already fallen since January 1st)
  11. The price of crude oil will be above $35 USD at the end of 2016: 70%
  12. The price of crude oil will be above $30 USD at the end of 2016: 90%
  13. The price of Bitcoin will be above $400 USD at the end of 2016: 70%
  14. The Canadian Federal Government will not decriminalize marijuana: 90%
  15. The US Federal Government will not decriminalize marijuana: 99%
  16. At least one more US State will decriminalize adult use and cultivation of marijuana: 60%
  17. Donald Trump will not win the Republican nomination: 60%
  18. Conditional on Trump winning the nomination, voter turnout as a percentage of the voting age population will be higher than it was in the 2012 presidential election: 90%
  19. Conditional on Trump losing the nomination, voter turnout as a percentage of the voting age population will be lower than it was in the 2012 presidential election: 60%
  20. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee: 80%
  21. Hillary Clinton will be elected President: 60%
  22. ISIS will hold less territory than it did at the beginning of 2016: 90%
  23. ISIS will lose Raqqa: 60%
  24. The Force Awakens’ worldwide gross will exceed that of Titanic: 80%
  25. The Force Awakens’ worldwide gross will not exceed that of Avatar: 80%
  26. No 2016 movie will gross more than The Force Awakens: 90%
  27. Leonardo DiCaprio will finally win an Oscar: 90%

Personal

  1. I will release more episodes of Economics Detective Radio than I did in 2015: 70%
  2. Economics Detective Radio will have more total downloads in 2016 than it did in 2015: 70%
  3. I will present at at least one academic conference: 90%
  4. I will not present at two academic conferences: 60%
  5. I will get married: 99%
  6. There will be more than 60 guests at my wedding: 60%
  7. I will submit at least one academic paper to a journal: 80%
  8. I will submit at least two academic papers to journals (not different drafts of the same paper): 60%
  9. I will upload at least four YouTube videos in 2016: 60%
  10. I will meet a Nobel Laureate I haven’t met before (a handshake or brief conversation counts as meeting, merely attending a lecture does not): 60%

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