Drugs, Prohibition, and the Suburban Overdose Crisis with Mark Thornton

Drugs

Mark Thornton is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute. He is the author of many books, including The Economics of Prohibition (which you can access for free here), which is also the topic of this episode.

1. Does drug prohibition help stop poverty and homelessness?

The conventional wisdom on drugs is simple: you see drugs and drug abuse mixed with poverty and homelessness and it makes intuitive sense that drugs play a role in causing poverty. It seems to follow that by criminalizing drugs, you can take them out of the equation and help solve the other problems.

Mark disputes this conventional wisdom. First, the causation doesn’t necessarily go from drugs to poverty. Poverty can cause people to abuse drugs and mental illness can cause both self-medication and poverty. Second, if you legalize drugs, they won’t be sold on the street. Instead, they’ll be sold by legitimate businesses with a particular interest in maintaining their reputation and not harming their customers. Prohibition is what creates the black market, which in turn generates violence, crime, and more potent and dangerous drugs, all of which exacerbate poverty. You can’t clean up the social problems related to drugs by criminalizing them when criminalizing them is what caused many of those problems.

2. The Suburban Heroin Epidemic

Mark recently authored an article called The Legalization Cure for the Heroin Epidemic. In the article, he calls attention to the rising number of overdose deaths in the United States:

The number of drug overdoses in the US is approaching 50,000 per year. Of that number nearly 20,000 are attributed to legal pain killers, such as Oxycontin. More than 10,000 die of heroin overdoses. I believe these figures vastly underestimate the number of deaths that are related to prescription drug use.

The face of drug abuse has changed in recent decades. Rather than the homeless junkie we might picture when we think of addiction, the new addicts are middle-class people who have been over-prescribed legal opiates like such as Oxycontin and Vicodin. Doctors have been routinely prescribing these addictive opiates and many people turn to the black market rather than going cold turkey when their prescriptions expire.

The problem is that Oxycontin and Vicodin are very expensive on the black market, so many of these unintentional addicts turn to heroin as a cheaper substitute. The problem with buying black market heroin is that you don’t know what you’re getting. Different addicts need different doses, and you don’t know what kind of dose you’re getting and what it’s been cut with. All it takes is one particularly strong dose to cause an accidental overdose.

3. American Foreign Policy and the Supply of Opiates

Afghanistan is the largest grower of illicit opium, and the supply has greatly increased since its invasion in 2001. The invasion destroyed the country’s legitimate economy and many farmers turned to opium production. Being a huge and basically lawless country with a perfect climate for growing poppies, the global supply of opium exploded.

4. Political Lies to Support Drug Prohibition

Mark discusses the political circumstances around the prohibition of marijuana in the United States.

Marijuana prohibition went national with the passage of the Marijuana Tax Act of 1937. It too quickly changed from a measure to tax and regulate into an outright prohibition. Even hemp, the non-intoxicating form of cannabis was banned! When propaganda claiming that marijuana was deadly and caused insanity, violence, and criminal behavior was debunked (aka Reefer Madness), the “gateway theory” was born to fill the void. The gateway theory posits that while marijuana might not be addictive or dangerous, it would lead the user to try the hard drugs, such as heroin. This theory became the prevailing view in the second half of the twentieth century.

Commissioner Harry J. Anslinger made up this gateway theory on the spot when arguing for the prohibition of marijuana. Unfortunately, the argument stuck.

Recently, a quote by John Ehrlichman, Richard Nixon’s domestic policy advisor (and Watergate co-conspirator) has resurfaced on the internet:

“The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You understand what I’m saying? We knew we couldn’t make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”

This quote shows how drug prohibition has long be complicit with the politics of bigotry.

5. Progress Against the War on Drugs

Despite the sordid history of drug prohibition in the twentieth century, we’ve made slow progress towards a sane drug policy. Marijuana’s many health benefits cannot be denied, and legislators are starting to take notice. Medical marijuana has been legalized in many places, and some places have even legalized it for recreational use.

Meanwhile, some jurisdictions have switched from treating drugs as a criminal issue to treating them as a medical issue. Portugal legalized all drugs in 2001. Some police chiefs have even unilaterally changed course in how they deal with addicts, offering help rather than incarceration.

We can only hope that complete legalization is just around the corner.

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Drugs, Prohibition, and the Suburban Overdose Crisis with Mark Thornton

Mark Thornton is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute. He is the author of many books, including The Economics of Prohibition (which you can access for free here), which is also the topic of this episode.

1. Does drug prohibition help stop poverty and homelessness?

The conventional wisdom on drugs is simple: you see drugs and drug abuse mixed with poverty and homelessness and it makes intuitive sense that drugs play a role in causing poverty. It seems to follow that by criminalizing drugs, you can take them out of the equation and help solve the other problems.

Mark disputes this conventional wisdom. First, the causation doesn’t necessarily go from drugs to poverty. Poverty can cause people to abuse drugs and mental illness can cause both self-medication and poverty. Second, if you legalize drugs, they won’t be sold on the street. Instead, they’ll be sold by legitimate businesses with a particular interest in maintaining their reputation and not harming their customers. Prohibition is what creates the black market, which in turn generates violence, crime, and more potent and dangerous drugs, all of which exacerbate poverty. You can’t clean up the social problems related to drugs by criminalizing them when criminalizing them is what caused many of those problems.

2. The Suburban Heroin Epidemic

Mark recently authored an article called The Legalization Cure for the Heroin Epidemic. In the article, he calls attention to the rising number of overdose deaths in the United States:

The number of drug overdoses in the US is approaching 50,000 per year. Of that number nearly 20,000 are attributed to legal pain killers, such as Oxycontin. More than 10,000 die of heroin overdoses. I believe these figures vastly underestimate the number of deaths that are related to prescription drug use.

(more…)

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Prediction Contest 2016

go

In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.

The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below:

Robyn G. Hanh T. Ted W. Peter N. John C. Chris S. Brett K. Natt H. Garrett P. Ricardo M. Adib R. Average Outcome
Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States 0 50 70 99 77 85 100 100 90 100 80 77.4
Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 30 50 30 4 15 25 60 50 10 40 70 34.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 100 lives 5 50 40 10 12 50 95 5 10 0 30 27.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 50 lives 5 50 55 20 34 60 95 10 15 10 80 39.5
The price of crude oil will be higher than 40 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 70 50 65 25 58 60 20 80 40 80 70 56.2
The price of crude oil will be higher than 45 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016 50 50 65 15 41 30 15 70 20 20 55 39.2
An American golfer will win the US Open 50 50 5 50 63 20 0 0 70 70 70 40.7
Serena Williams will win the Women’s Singles tennis tournament at the French Open 65 50 15 60 60 90 0 50 30 70 60 50.0
The character who was stabbed in the last episode of Game of Thrones will be resurrected in the first episode of the next season 0 50 30 20 73 100 100 10 20 50 40 44.8
That character will be resurrected in the first five episodes of the next season 20 50 55 40 88 100 80 10 80 50 30 54.8
That character will be resurrected by the end of the next season 40 50 60 60 91 100 100 10 99 30 30 60.9
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will earn more in its opening weekend than Man of Steel ($116,619,362) 50 50 60 85 47 85 100 70 85 20 80 66.5
Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela 90 50 50 10 94 60 25 90 80 80 20 59.0
There will be a national election in Spain 100 50 50 50 80 70 80 5 80 0 70 57.7
Conditional on there being a Spanish election, Rajoy will be elected the next Prime Minister of Spain 90 50 60 50 48 50 100 50 45 10 80 57.5
ISIS will maintain control of Al-Raqqah 90 50 70 70 96 100 15 70 60 50 90 69.2
The Canadian dollar will be lower than 0.76 USD 20 50 25 80 45 76 0 70 40 10 20 39.6
The econ department will select a new Chair and Associate Chair 50 50 15 75 53 50 100 5 40 80 80 54.4
The winner of the NHL Western Conference will win the Stanley Cup 75 50 75 50 37 100 0 50 45 10 60 50.2
AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol in all five Go matches 90 50 35 100 100 0 0 100 90 90 50 64.1 FALSE
Brier Score 0.81 0.25 0.1225 1 1 0 0 1 0.81 0.81 0.25 0.41

 

Updates

March 13th: Lee Sedol avenges humankind in his fourth match against AlphaGo.

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