Predictions – Page 2 – Garrett M. Petersen

In my capacity as President of the Economics Graduate Student Society at SFU, I set up a prediction contest. We hosted a pub night and I used the opportunity to solicit predictions on a wide range of topics. The person with the lowest Brier score will be the winner.

The predictions were made on March 12th, 2016 (before Lee Sedol’s fourth match against AlphaGo) and they will all be resolved on July 1st, 2016. I report the predictions and their outcomes (when they occur) in the table below:

	Robyn G.	Hanh T.	Ted W.	Peter N.	John C.	Chris S.	Brett K.	Natt H.	Garrett P.	Ricardo M.	Adib R.	Average	Outcome
Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States	0	50	70	99	77	85	100	100	90	100	80	77.4
Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States	30	50	30	4	15	25	60	50	10	40	70	34.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 100 lives	5	50	40	10	12	50	95	5	10	0	30	27.9
A single terrorist attack in an OECD country will claim at least 50 lives	5	50	55	20	34	60	95	10	15	10	80	39.5
The price of crude oil will be higher than 40 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016	70	50	65	25	58	60	20	80	40	80	70	56.2
The price of crude oil will be higher than 45 USD per barrel as of July 1st, 2016	50	50	65	15	41	30	15	70	20	20	55	39.2
An American golfer will win the US Open	50	50	5	50	63	20	0	0	70	70	70	40.7
Serena Williams will win the Women’s Singles tennis tournament at the French Open	65	50	15	60	60	90	0	50	30	70	60	50.0
The character who was stabbed in the last episode of Game of Thrones will be resurrected in the first episode of the next season	0	50	30	20	73	100	100	10	20	50	40	44.8
That character will be resurrected in the first five episodes of the next season	20	50	55	40	88	100	80	10	80	50	30	54.8
That character will be resurrected by the end of the next season	40	50	60	60	91	100	100	10	99	30	30	60.9
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will earn more in its opening weekend than Man of Steel ($116,619,362)	50	50	60	85	47	85	100	70	85	20	80	66.5
Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela	90	50	50	10	94	60	25	90	80	80	20	59.0
There will be a national election in Spain	100	50	50	50	80	70	80	5	80	0	70	57.7
Conditional on there being a Spanish election, Rajoy will be elected the next Prime Minister of Spain	90	50	60	50	48	50	100	50	45	10	80	57.5
ISIS will maintain control of Al-Raqqah	90	50	70	70	96	100	15	70	60	50	90	69.2
The Canadian dollar will be lower than 0.76 USD	20	50	25	80	45	76	0	70	40	10	20	39.6
The econ department will select a new Chair and Associate Chair	50	50	15	75	53	50	100	5	40	80	80	54.4
The winner of the NHL Western Conference will win the Stanley Cup	75	50	75	50	37	100	0	50	45	10	60	50.2
AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol in all five Go matches	90	50	35	100	100	0	0	100	90	90	50	64.1	FALSE
Brier Score	0.81	0.25	0.1225	1	1	0	0	1	0.81	0.81	0.25	0.41

Updates

March 13th: Lee Sedol avenges humankind in his fourth match against AlphaGo.

The post Prediction Contest 2016 appeared first on The Economics Detective.