Benefits Vs. Capital

Spencer writes the following in the comments to my post about monopsony and the minimum wage:

“If wages increase, the employer would want to increase workers productivity normally that would entail improved working conditions.

But you are claiming that employers react to higher wages by implementing policies that reduce productivity — that does not make any sense and is contrary to economic theory.”

I want to make a clear distinction between benefits and capital. Benefits are things that the employer provides that make workers happier to work for that employer, ceteris paribus. Capital is what the employer provides to make each worker more productive.

The reason employers provide benefits (above those legally mandated) is because their employees implicitly pay for them by taking a pay cut. People must be paid more to do more unpleasant work, and less to do less unpleasant work, so investments employers make to make working for them less unpleasant are implicitly paid for through lower wages.

As Spencer suggests, economic theory does predict that a binding minimum wage will lead firms to shift away from low-skilled labour and into other factors of production, including capital. This will make those low-skilled workers still employed at the higher wage more productive, such that their marginal product is at least as high as the minimum wage. My claim is that a binding minimum wage leads employers to provide fewer benefits than they otherwise would.

Often, the same thing can function as both a benefit and a capital investment. Modern garbage trucks allow garbage men to pick up garbage faster, but they also make the job less unpleasant by minimizing the amount of garbage the garbage men actually handle. If I were running a private garbage-pickup service (are there any?), my choice to invest in a modern garbage truck would depend both on how much more productive it would make my workers and on how much it would reduce the cost of hiring and retaining workers. If the truck costs $200,000, the extra productivity it generates is $150,000, and the decreased unpleasantness is worth $60,000* to the workers, then I would buy the truck. That would allow me attract and retain workers for $60,000 less, and I would net $10,000 in additional profits.

If, however, the workers were subject to a price floor on wages that would not allow them to accept a pay cut greater than $40,000, I would not consider the other $20,000 of value created for the workers, and I would not invest in that particular truck, as it would earn me a net loss of $10,000.

Worker training can also function as either a capital investment or a benefit (from the firm’s perspective). The distinction economic theory makes is between firm-specific human capital investments and non-firm-specific human capital investments. The firm captures workers’ productivity gains from firm-specific human capital investments, because a worker who knows all the ins and outs of working at firm A but cannot transfer his skills to firm B has a low reservation wage and therefore a poor bargaining position. Firm B would pay him the wage of an unskilled worker, so firm A doesn’t have to pay him more than that to retain his services. However, if the worker gains skills that would serve him equally well at A or B, then he can use those skills to negotiate a higher wage for himself.

Thus, training a worker with non-firm-specific skills is a benefit from the firm’s perspective, as the worker will capture his additional productivity through higher wages. So workers must pay for non-firm-specific training through implicitly lower wages. If wages cannot be lowered below a price floor, then the worker cannot buy the training.** This means that we can’t theoretically predict whether the minimum wage will increase or decrease the total amount of worker training, as we would expect firms to offer more firm-specific training per worker and less non-firm-specific training.

While the minimum wage is a price floor on wages, it is also an implicit price ceiling on benefits. The most a worker can implicitly spend*** on benefits from his employer is his marginal product minus the minimum wage, unless he is willing to take his entire compensation in benefits, in which case he can get an unpaid internship or volunteer position. Few poor people can afford to work unpaid internships, so the minimum wage is more damaging to them than it is to people from wealthier families.

 

* That $60,000 figure is a future-discounted stream summed across all garbage men.

** The worker could contractually agree to continue working at a low wage for a period of time after training has increased his productivity as a way of paying for the training. This could mitigate the negative effect of the minimum wage, but such contracts come with their own difficulties and risks.

*** I suppose they could get around the minimum wage by changing the payment from an implicit wage cut to an explicit payment, but there are obvious pitfalls to doing so. Imagine the headlines: “Walmart charges employees for training!”

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Benefits Vs. Capital

Spencer writes the following in the comments to my post about monopsony and the minimum wage:

“If wages increase, the employer would want to increase workers productivity normally that would entail improved working conditions.

But you are claiming that employers react to higher wages by implementing policies that reduce productivity — that does not make any sense and is contrary to economic theory.”

I want to make a clear distinction between benefits and capital. Benefits are things that the employer provides that make workers happier to work for that employer, ceteris paribus. Capital is what the employer provides to make each worker more productive.

The reason employers provide benefits (above those legally mandated) is because their employees implicitly pay for them by taking a pay cut. People must be paid more to do more unpleasant work, and less to do less unpleasant work, so investments employers make to make working for them less unpleasant are implicitly paid for through lower wages. (more…)

The post Benefits Vs. Capital appeared first on The Economics Detective.

Erdmann, Empiricism, and the Minimum Wage

Erdmann's MW and teen unemployment graph
Pre-trend lines are for period from 27 to 3 months before MW hike. MW Trend lines are for period from 3 month before to 27 months after initial MW hike. [Y axis = Teen Employment To Population Ratio]
Kevin Erdmann, over at Idiosyncratic Whisk, posted a graph similar to the one shown above,* demonstrating that the trend in the US teen employment rate after a minimum wage hike was lower in all but one case than the trend before the hike.

There have been many responses, but I would like to focus on one over at Angry Bear that captures the worst of the criticism.** The writer goes way over the top in criticizing Erdmann, saying that people who oppose the minimum wage “apparently believe that the business cycle never impacts teen employment or unemployment.” To read this article, you’d think think that the only opposition to the minimum wage came in blog-post form. Frankly, no empirical analysis coming from a blog (including Angry Bear) can offer anything but a prima facie case for or against some proposition. I don’t read Erdmann as claiming that his little graph is the final word on the minimum wage.

The Angry Bear post goes on to use some very questionable econometrics to show that the minimum wage doesn’t have a big impact on teen unemployment. The author doesn’t use the inflation-adjusted minimum wage in his graphs (and presumably in his regression) for reasons unknown, making them pretty irrelevant. He then naively regresses the teen unemployment rate against adult unemployment, a recession dummy, the teen population, and the minimum wage to find that (surprise!) the minimum wage doesn’t have a big effect on teen unemployment. For someone who criticizes others about omitted variables, this regression should be pretty embarrassing. That’s time-series data! You don’t just apply OLS regression to time-series data. OLS regression assumes uncorrelated error terms, and the fact that adult (and teen) unemployment last month is highly correlated with adult (and teen) unemployment this month destroys that assumption.

To put it in layman’s terms, this statistical technique would find any two things that trend over time to be highly significantly related. It’s not a great way to do econometrics.

That said, I think if the author of this post had used good econometrics, he still would have found little connection between the minimum wage and teen unemployment. The economy is big and complicated, and it’s nearly impossible to distinguish real causal connections between economic variables from spurious correlations and white noise. Minimum wage hikes are typically small, so it’s hard to tease their effect out from all the other things going on.

Given that it’s so hard to get anything out of the data, the winner of any empirical argument is nearly always going to be determined by our assignment of the burden of proof. If one side says “A causes B” and the other side says “A does not cause B,” then the former side will win if the burden of proof is on the latter side, and the latter side will win if the burden of proof is on the former side. If the burden of proof is shared equally by both sides, the one that says “A does not cause B” will probably win, because teasing out the effect of any A on any B is very difficult without the opportunity to conduct controlled experiments.

I can think of three reasons why the burden of proof should be on the minimum wage law’s proponents to show that it has positive effects:

  1. Economic theory clearly implies that the minimum wage reduces opportunities for low-skilled workers, not only because it makes it hard for them to get a job, but because it prevents them from having a full range of contracting options with their employers. Minimum wage proponents need to justify their position with strange assumptions like monopsony in the market for low-skilled labour or efficient rationing. Weak theoretical arguments should require strong empirical backing to be taken seriously.
  2. The minimum wage law is a case of the political class overriding the decisions of millions of workers and employers engaging in peaceful contracting. In general, when a third party such as the government steps in to override other people’s decisions, the third party should provide a good reason for its meddling. Without this presumption, we would quickly descend into totalitarian rule.
  3. If the proponents of the minimum wage are wrong, the burden falls on the poorest members of society. If other anti-poverty programs fail, such as those programs that just give money to the poor, the burden is on the taxpayers who paid for the ineffective program. Taxpayers are richer than those who could be unemployed by the minimum wage law, so it’s better that they should bear the risk. (This argument was made recently by Janet Neilson.)

There are my arguments. I leave it to minimum wage proponents to prove that the minimum wage should exist. Until then, I will happily oppose it.

 

* This graph was added in a later update. Erdmann realized that the teen employment to population ratio was a more relevant variable than simply teen employment.

** Kevin Erdmann’s follow-up post deals with many of Angry Bear’s complaints. He also responded directly to the Angry Bear post in a comment on Marginal Revolution.

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